HeslinPumaMarchandEtAl2020

Reference

Heslin, A., Puma, M.J., Marchand, P., Carr, J.A., Dell'Angelo, J., D'Odorico, P., Gephart, J.A., Kummu, M., Porkka, M., Rulli, M.C., Seekell, D.A., Suweis, S., Tavoni, A. (2020) Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 4. (Scopus )

Abstract

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network. © Copyright © 2020 Heslin, Puma, Marchand, Carr, Dell'Angelo, D'Odorico, Gephart, Kummu, Porkka, Rulli, Seekell, Suweis and Tavoni.

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@ARTICLE { HeslinPumaMarchandEtAl2020,
    AUTHOR = { Heslin, A. and Puma, M.J. and Marchand, P. and Carr, J.A. and Dell'Angelo, J. and D'Odorico, P. and Gephart, J.A. and Kummu, M. and Porkka, M. and Rulli, M.C. and Seekell, D.A. and Suweis, S. and Tavoni, A. },
    JOURNAL = { Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems },
    TITLE = { Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event },
    YEAR = { 2020 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    VOLUME = { 4 },
    ABSTRACT = { Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network. © Copyright © 2020 Heslin, Puma, Marchand, Carr, Dell'Angelo, D'Odorico, Gephart, Kummu, Porkka, Rulli, Seekell, Suweis and Tavoni. },
    AFFILIATION = { Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Institut de Recherche sur les Forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, Canada; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC, United States; Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland; Stockholm Resilience Centre and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Padova, Padova, Italy; Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy },
    ART_NUMBER = { 26 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { drought; extreme weather; food crisis; food security; food systems; international trade },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85083047386&doi=10.3389%2ffsufs.2020.00026&partnerID=40&md5=083612d02207cc04e7fea026104be11a },
}

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