BerteauxRicardSt-LaurentEtAl2018

Référence

Berteaux, D., Ricard, M., St-Laurent, M.-H., Casajus, N., Périé, C., Beauregard, F. and De Blois, S. (2018) Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates. Scientific Reports, 8(1). (Scopus )

Résumé

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network. © 2018 The Author(s).

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@ARTICLE { BerteauxRicardSt-LaurentEtAl2018,
    AUTHOR = { Berteaux, D. and Ricard, M. and St-Laurent, M.-H. and Casajus, N. and Périé, C. and Beauregard, F. and De Blois, S. },
    TITLE = { Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates },
    JOURNAL = { Scientific Reports },
    YEAR = { 2018 },
    VOLUME = { 8 },
    NUMBER = { 1 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    ABSTRACT = { The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network. © 2018 The Author(s). },
    AFFILIATION = { Canada Research Cha. on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec À Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, Canada; Centre for Northern Studies, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec À Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, Canada; Direction de la Recherche Forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, 2700, rue Einstein, C.1.200, Québec, QC, Canada; Department of Plant Science, Macdonald Campus, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de, Bellevue, QC, Canada; McGill School of Environment, 3534 University Street, Montreal, QC, Canada },
    ART_NUMBER = { 4623 },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85044245983&doi=10.1038%2fs41598-018-23050-w&partnerID=40&md5=b4819d4988c059f8265f6e5421aa8804 },
}

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