Grillet2010251

Référence

Grillet, M.-E., Jordan, G.J. and Fortin, M.-J. (2010) State transition detection in the spatio-temporal incidence of malaria. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 1(4):251-259. (Scopus )

Résumé

Mosquito-borne disease spread might exhibit irregular epidemic fronts caused by ecological heterogeneity in the risk factors. To determine Plasmodium vivax infection spread in north-eastern Venezuela, we used the State Transition Index (STI) to detect the spatial locations of malaria incidence boundaries and their dynamics over time. Then, we evaluated the role of population size on disease persistence. Boundary locations of malaria were found to be highly spatially variable. Waves of infection were observed in the spatial mosaics of large and small nearby localities due to a strong asynchrony in the epidemic dynamics between both host populations. Our results suggest that the epidemic spatial diffusion follows a hierarchy from large, populated villages (with few or no seasonal parasite fadeouts) to smaller, less populated localities, where infection outbreak was irregular or disease dynamics showed frequent fadeouts. Our findings stress the importance of malaria surveillance and control in these larger communities. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

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@ARTICLE { Grillet2010251,
    AUTHOR = { Grillet, M.-E. and Jordan, G.J. and Fortin, M.-J. },
    TITLE = { State transition detection in the spatio-temporal incidence of malaria },
    JOURNAL = { Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology },
    YEAR = { 2010 },
    VOLUME = { 1 },
    NUMBER = { 4 },
    PAGES = { 251-259 },
    NOTE = { cited By 5 },
    ABSTRACT = { Mosquito-borne disease spread might exhibit irregular epidemic fronts caused by ecological heterogeneity in the risk factors. To determine Plasmodium vivax infection spread in north-eastern Venezuela, we used the State Transition Index (STI) to detect the spatial locations of malaria incidence boundaries and their dynamics over time. Then, we evaluated the role of population size on disease persistence. Boundary locations of malaria were found to be highly spatially variable. Waves of infection were observed in the spatial mosaics of large and small nearby localities due to a strong asynchrony in the epidemic dynamics between both host populations. Our results suggest that the epidemic spatial diffusion follows a hierarchy from large, populated villages (with few or no seasonal parasite fadeouts) to smaller, less populated localities, where infection outbreak was irregular or disease dynamics showed frequent fadeouts. Our findings stress the importance of malaria surveillance and control in these larger communities. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. },
    AFFILIATION = { Laboratorio de Biologia de Vectores, Instituto de Zoologia y Ecologia Tropical, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Apartado 47058, Caracas 1041-A, Venezuela; Department of Geography and Environment, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB, E4L 1A7, Canada; Geography Program, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC, V2Y 1Y1, Canada; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G5, Canada },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Epidemic wave; Heterogeneity; Malaria persistence; Population size; Spatial boundary },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1016/j.sste.2010.09.007 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-78649630806&doi=10.1016%2fj.sste.2010.09.007&partnerID=40&md5=2da4c56c082983e4d27edd46d5d63352 },
}

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