MartinPedersonWoodhouseEtAl2020

Référence

Martin, J.T., Pederson, G.T., Woodhouse, C.A., Cook, E.R., McCabe, G.J., Anchukaitis, K.J., Wise, E.K., Erger, P.J., Dolan, L., McGuire, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Chase, K.J., Littell, J.S., Gray, S.T., George, S.S., Friedman, J.M., Sauchyn, D.J., St-Jacques, J.-M., King, J. (2020) Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(21). (Scopus )

Résumé

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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@ARTICLE { MartinPedersonWoodhouseEtAl2020,
    AUTHOR = { Martin, J.T. and Pederson, G.T. and Woodhouse, C.A. and Cook, E.R. and McCabe, G.J. and Anchukaitis, K.J. and Wise, E.K. and Erger, P.J. and Dolan, L. and McGuire, M. and Gangopadhyay, S. and Chase, K.J. and Littell, J.S. and Gray, S.T. and George, S.S. and Friedman, J.M. and Sauchyn, D.J. and St-Jacques, J.-M. and King, J. },
    JOURNAL = { Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America },
    TITLE = { Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin },
    YEAR = { 2020 },
    NOTE = { cited By 1 },
    NUMBER = { 21 },
    VOLUME = { 117 },
    ABSTRACT = { Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. },
    AFFILIATION = { Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States; School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey, Denver, CO 80225, United States; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, United States; Missouri Basin Region, US Bureau of Reclamation, Billings, MT 59107, United States; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Helena, MT 59601, United States; Technical Service Center, US Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 80225, United States; Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, US Geological Survey, Helena, MT 59601, United States; Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, US Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK 99503, United States; Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, United States; Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Ft. Collins, CO 80526, United States; Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada; Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada; Lone Pine Research, Bozeman, MT 59715, United States },
    ART_NUMBER = { 11328 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Drought severity; Precipitation; Streamflow; Temperature; Water resources },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1073/pnas.1916208117 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085524691&doi=10.1073%2fpnas.1916208117&partnerID=40&md5=1efeb7986ad1a49fba7aff838d77d615 },
}

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