BarberParisienWhitmanEtAl2018

Référence

Barber, Q.E., Parisien, M.-A., Whitman, E., Stralberg, D., Johnson, C.J., St-Laurent, M.-H., DeLancey, E.R., Price, D.T., Arseneault, D., Wang, X., Flannigan, M.D. (2018) Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou. Ecosphere, 9(10). (Scopus )

Résumé

Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8–15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat-quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo-edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from <1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long-term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta. © 2018 The Authors.

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@ARTICLE { BarberParisienWhitmanEtAl2018,
    AUTHOR = { Barber, Q.E. and Parisien, M.-A. and Whitman, E. and Stralberg, D. and Johnson, C.J. and St-Laurent, M.-H. and DeLancey, E.R. and Price, D.T. and Arseneault, D. and Wang, X. and Flannigan, M.D. },
    TITLE = { Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou },
    JOURNAL = { Ecosphere },
    YEAR = { 2018 },
    VOLUME = { 9 },
    NUMBER = { 10 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    ABSTRACT = { Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8–15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat-quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo-edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from <1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long-term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta. © 2018 The Authors. },
    AFFILIATION = { Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122 St. NW, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada; Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada; Département de Biologie, Centre for Northern Studies and Centre for Forest Research, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada; Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada; Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada },
    ART_NUMBER = { e02472 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { climate change; disturbance modeling; predation risk; wildland fire; woodland caribou },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1002/ecs2.2472 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85055658264&doi=10.1002%2fecs2.2472&partnerID=40&md5=cce205f3ebdb494e5355182901282596 },
}

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