ZhuJiangPengEtAl2013

Référence

Zhu, Q., Jiang, H., Peng, C., Liu, J., Fang, X., Chen, H., Liu, S. (2013) Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 4(3):302-316. (Scopus )

Résumé

The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty. © IWA Publishing 2013.

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@ARTICLE { ZhuJiangPengEtAl2013,
    AUTHOR = { Zhu, Q. and Jiang, H. and Peng, C. and Liu, J. and Fang, X. and Chen, H. and Liu, S. },
    TITLE = { Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China },
    JOURNAL = { Journal of Water and Climate Change },
    YEAR = { 2013 },
    VOLUME = { 4 },
    PAGES = { 302-316 },
    NUMBER = { 3 },
    NOTE = { cited By (since 1996)0 },
    ABSTRACT = { The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty. © IWA Publishing 2013. },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { China; Climate change; Hydrological effects; Uncertainty; Water resource },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.2166/wcc.2013.072 },
    ISSN = { 20402244 },
    KEYWORDS = { China; Climate change scenarios; Hydrological effects; Precipitation and runoff; Spatial and temporal variation; Spatio-temporal variation; Trends of precipitations; Uncertainty, Climate change; Climate models; Runoff; Water resources, Uncertainty analysis, climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; global climate; hydrology; precipitation (climatology); runoff; spatial variation; spatiotemporal analysis; temporal variation; trend analysis; uncertainty analysis; vegetation; water resource, China },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84884274605&partnerID=40&md5=a965d831b19f08f83ff5b2c4e901d042 },
}

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