WangHuYangEtAl2021

Référence

Wang, Y., Hu, J., Yang, Y., Li, R., Peng, C., Zheng, H. (2021) Climate change will reduce the carbon use efficiency of terrestrial ecosystems on the Qinghai-tibet plateau: An analysis based on multiple models. Forests, 12(1):1-16. (Scopus )

Résumé

The carbon use efficiency (CUE) of ecosystems, expressed as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), is extremely sensitive to climate change and has a great effect on the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change leads to changes in vegetation, resulting in different CUE values, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. However, the change trend and the intrinsic mechanism of climate effects on CUE in the future climate change scenario are not clear in this region. Based on the scheme of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), we analyze the simulation results of the five models of the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) under three different typical future climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2015–2100 with methods of model-averaging to average the long-term forecast of the five several well-known forecast models for three alternative climate scenarios with three radiative forcing levels to discuss the CUE changes and a structural equations modeling (SEM) approach to examine how the trends in GPP, NPP, and CUE related to different climate factors. The results show that (1) GPP and NPP demonstrated an upward trend in a long time series of 86 years, and the upward trend became increasingly substantial with the increase in radiation forcing; (2) the ecosystem CUE of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease in the long time series in the future, and it shows a substantial decreasing trend with the increase in radiation forcing; and (3) the dominant climate factor affecting CUE is temperature of the factors included in these models, which affects CUE mainly through GPP and NPP to produce indirect effects. Temperature has a higher comprehensive effect on CUE than precipitation and CO2, which are negative effects on CUE on an annual scale. Our finding that the CUE decreases in the future suggests that we must pay more attention to the vegetation and CUE changes, which will produce great effects on the regional carbon dynamics and balance. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

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@ARTICLE { WangHuYangEtAl2021,
    AUTHOR = { Wang, Y. and Hu, J. and Yang, Y. and Li, R. and Peng, C. and Zheng, H. },
    JOURNAL = { Forests },
    TITLE = { Climate change will reduce the carbon use efficiency of terrestrial ecosystems on the Qinghai-tibet plateau: An analysis based on multiple models },
    YEAR = { 2021 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    NUMBER = { 1 },
    PAGES = { 1-16 },
    VOLUME = { 12 },
    ABSTRACT = { The carbon use efficiency (CUE) of ecosystems, expressed as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), is extremely sensitive to climate change and has a great effect on the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change leads to changes in vegetation, resulting in different CUE values, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. However, the change trend and the intrinsic mechanism of climate effects on CUE in the future climate change scenario are not clear in this region. Based on the scheme of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), we analyze the simulation results of the five models of the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) under three different typical future climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2015–2100 with methods of model-averaging to average the long-term forecast of the five several well-known forecast models for three alternative climate scenarios with three radiative forcing levels to discuss the CUE changes and a structural equations modeling (SEM) approach to examine how the trends in GPP, NPP, and CUE related to different climate factors. The results show that (1) GPP and NPP demonstrated an upward trend in a long time series of 86 years, and the upward trend became increasingly substantial with the increase in radiation forcing; (2) the ecosystem CUE of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease in the long time series in the future, and it shows a substantial decreasing trend with the increase in radiation forcing; and (3) the dominant climate factor affecting CUE is temperature of the factors included in these models, which affects CUE mainly through GPP and NPP to produce indirect effects. Temperature has a higher comprehensive effect on CUE than precipitation and CO2, which are negative effects on CUE on an annual scale. Our finding that the CUE decreases in the future suggests that we must pay more attention to the vegetation and CUE changes, which will produce great effects on the regional carbon dynamics and balance. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. },
    AFFILIATION = { Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China; State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China; Department of Biology Sciences, Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montréal, QC H2L 2C4, Canada },
    ART_NUMBER = { 12 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Carbon use efficiency (CUE); Climate change; CMIP6; Gross primary production (GPP); Model-averaging; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.3390/f12010012 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85099483167&doi=10.3390%2ff12010012&partnerID=40&md5=ab9f8e0c786723bb9f3b34bd67e4ee9f },
}

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