ZohnerMoRennerEtAl2020

Reference

Zohner, C.M., Mo, L., Renner, S.S., Svenning, J.-C., Vitasse, Y., Benito, B.M., Ordonez, A., Baumgarten, F., Bastin, J.-F., Sebald, V., Reich, P.B., Liang, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., De-Migueln, S., Alberti, G., Antón-Fernández, C., Balazy, R., Brändli, U.-B., Chen, H.Y.H., Chisholm, C., Cienciala, E., Dayanandan, S., Fayle, T.M., Frizzera, L., Gianelle, D., Jagodzinski, A.M., Jaroszewicz, B., Jucker, T., Kepfer-Rojas, S., Khan, M.L., Kim, H.S., Korjus, H., Johannsen, V.K., Laarmann, D., Langn, M., Zawila-Niedzwiecki, T., Niklaus, P.A., Paquette, A., Pretzsch, H., Saikia, P., Schall, P., Seben, V., Svoboda, M., Tikhonova, E., Viana, H., Zhang, C., Zhao, X., Crowther, T.W. (2020) Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(22). (Scopus )

Abstract

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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@ARTICLE { ZohnerMoRennerEtAl2020,
    AUTHOR = { Zohner, C.M. and Mo, L. and Renner, S.S. and Svenning, J.-C. and Vitasse, Y. and Benito, B.M. and Ordonez, A. and Baumgarten, F. and Bastin, J.-F. and Sebald, V. and Reich, P.B. and Liang, J. and Nabuurs, G.-J. and De-Migueln, S. and Alberti, G. and Antón-Fernández, C. and Balazy, R. and Brändli, U.-B. and Chen, H.Y.H. and Chisholm, C. and Cienciala, E. and Dayanandan, S. and Fayle, T.M. and Frizzera, L. and Gianelle, D. and Jagodzinski, A.M. and Jaroszewicz, B. and Jucker, T. and Kepfer-Rojas, S. and Khan, M.L. and Kim, H.S. and Korjus, H. and Johannsen, V.K. and Laarmann, D. and Langn, M. and Zawila-Niedzwiecki, T. and Niklaus, P.A. and Paquette, A. and Pretzsch, H. and Saikia, P. and Schall, P. and Seben, V. and Svoboda, M. and Tikhonova, E. and Viana, H. and Zhang, C. and Zhao, X. and Crowther, T.W. },
    JOURNAL = { Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America },
    TITLE = { Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia },
    YEAR = { 2020 },
    NOTE = { cited By 1 },
    NUMBER = { 22 },
    VOLUME = { 117 },
    ABSTRACT = { Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. },
    AFFILIATION = { Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, 80638, Germany; Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, 3584 CS, Netherlands; Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Lab., Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, 9000, Belgium; Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, United States; Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2753, Australia; Lab. of Forest Advanced Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States; Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, 6700AA, Netherlands; Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, 6700AA, Netherlands; Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Lleida, E25198, Spain; Joint Research Unit, Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia CTFC-Centre for Research in Agrotechnology, Solsona, E25280, Spain; Department of Agricultural, Food, Environmental and Animal Sciences, University of Udine, Udine, 33100, Italy; Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council, Florence, 50019, Italy; Division of Forestry and Forest Resources NIBIO, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, NO-1431, Norway; Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, Raszyn, 05-090, Poland; Swiss National Forest Inventory, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland; Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, Canada; Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fujian, 350117, China; Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research IFER, Jilove u Prahy, CZ 254 01, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, CZ 603 00, Czech Republic; Centre for Structural and Functional Genomics, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada; Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, 370 05, Czech Republic; Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, 88400, Malaysia; Department of Sustainable Agro-Ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, 38010, Italy; Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, PL-62-035, Poland; Faculty of Forestry, Department of Game Management and Forest Protection, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, PL-60-625, Poland; Białowieza Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, Bialowieza, PL-17-230, Poland; School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TQ, United Kingdom; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, C 1958, Denmark; Department of Botany, Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh 470003, India; Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Interdisciplinary Program in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; National Center for Agro Meteorology, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, 51006, Estonia; Tartu Observatory, University of Tartu, Tõravere, 61602, Estonia; Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects, Polish State Forests, Warsaw, 02-362, Poland; Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland; Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H3C 3P8, Canada; School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Freising, 85354, Germany; Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jharkhand, Brambe, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835205, India; Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, 37077, Germany; National Forest Centre, Zvolen, 96001, Slovakia; Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Praha 6 Suchdol, 16521, Czech Republic; Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation; Agricultural High School, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, Viseu, 3500-606, Portugal; Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal; Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Climate change; Freezing damage; Late frost; Phenology; Spring leaf-out },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1073/pnas.1920816117 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85084230084&doi=10.1073%2fpnas.1920816117&partnerID=40&md5=f2f0db498b9d2d300edfdac74d55b724 },
}

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